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MBA CREF Forecast: Total Commercial Mortgage Originations to Increase 27 Percent to $805 Billion in 2026

MBA's annual CREF Forecast projects total commercial mortgage origination volume to rise 27% to $805.5 billion in 2026, with multifamily originations climbing to $399.2 billion.

Capital MarketsDebt & FinancingMultifamilyU.S. National
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Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Crosses $5 Trillion in First-Quarter 2026

MBA's quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding report finds total debt rose $26.3 billion (0.5%) to $5.02 trillion in Q1 2026, with multifamily debt up $23.0 billion to $2.32 trillion.

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Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates

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Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing Increased 52 Percent in the First Quarter of 2026

MBA's Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations shows Q1 2026 originations up 52% year-over-year, led by an 80% rise in depository lending.

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Chart of the Week: Total CRE Lending, 2020-2025

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MBA Annual Report Finds Total Commercial Real Estate Borrowing and Lending Increased 40 Percent in 2025

MBA's 2025 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Annual Origination Volume Summation estimates total CRE borrowing and lending reached $706 billion in 2025, a 40% increase over 2024.

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Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increased to $4.99 Trillion in Fourth-Quarter 2025

Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose 1.5 percent, or 75.2 billion dollars, to 4.99 trillion dollars in the fourth quarter of 2025. Multifamily debt grew 57.3 billion dollars during the quarter and 142.9 billion dollars for the full year.

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