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Five Questions for 2026

Carlyle's Jason Thomas frames the firm's 2026 research agenda around five key uncertainties, including how affordability concerns might shape Federal Reserve policy and whether the AI-driven data-center boom poses economic constraints. He argues questions are more useful than predictions for keeping investors flexible.

EconomyAlternativesGlobal
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Going with the Deal Flow (Global Private Markets Quarterly, Q2 2026)

Carlyle's Global Private Markets Quarterly finds private markets demonstrated resilience in Q1 2026 despite geopolitical challenges, with investors increasingly favoring hard-asset sectors like utilities and energy over technology. 'Hard' industries made up 46% of transaction volumes versus just 13% a year prior.

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Credit in 2026: A Market That Demands Insight, Not Just Capital

Carlyle's Mark Jenkins identifies 2026 as a year requiring disciplined underwriting and specialized expertise rather than capital alone. He highlights five themes including widening credit dispersion, the expansion of private credit into complex structures, asset-backed finance growth, and attractive European private-credit valuations.

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Bursting the Bubble in the AI Debate

Jason Thomas argues that major tech companies have shifted from asset-light to capital-intensive models due to AI infrastructure investment, yet retain valuations built on the old model. He contends that when these companies acquire $100 million in data-center assets, shareholders are effectively asked to pay far more at current price-to-book ratios.

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Through the Looking Glass

Jason Thomas examines widening potential outcomes for stocks and bonds despite narrow market pricing. He explores risks including the blurring of fiscal and monetary policy, AI's actual capital requirements, and concentrated public-market valuations that contrast with more disciplined private-market fundamentals.

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2025 Credit Outlook: Back to Basics

Jason Thomas and Mark Jenkins examine private credit's rapid expansion and argue future growth should shift toward less saturated segments like investment-grade and asset-backed finance. The report cautions against overreliance on sponsored M&A activity for deal sourcing.

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The Carlyle Group

5 Questions for 2025

In his annual outlook, Jason Thomas, Carlyle's Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy, lays out five global macroeconomic questions for investors to consider in the year ahead. The piece explores the key economic and market themes most relevant to investment decision-making in 2025.

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